For e-commerce & DTC brands

Your data is already telling you which ads are wasting money. We help you hear it.

Thumprint deploys enterprise-grade ML models on your customer data, predicting churn, forecasting LTV, and identifying wasted ad spend before it compounds.

Built for brands doing $1M–$20M.
4
predictive models deployed on your data
2 wks
from data access to live predictions
— THE PROBLEM

The gap between what your ad platform reports and what is actually happening

You're running ads, sending emails, and watching your dashboard. But the underlying data is speaking a different language than your tools.

ROAS looks fine in aggregate, but some cohorts are profitable and others aren't. Customers are churning silently. And the signal that could fix all of it is sitting in BigQuery with no path to the people who need it.

What platforms report 8.4x ROAS
What's actually happening 1.49x true ROAS
Customers at silent churn risk ~26% annually
Typical detection 90 days too late
— WHERE THE REVENUE LEAKS

Four blind spots. Four models.

Acquisition waste

Platform attribution takes credit for sales you already owned. You're scaling spend into diminishing returns without knowing it.

Silent churn

They don't unsubscribe. They just stop buying. By the time revenue drops, the reactivation window has already closed.

Email fatigue

Some customers want daily sends. Others will unsubscribe if you email twice a week. Your platform doesn't know the difference.

LTV blindness

You're optimising for first-order ROAS, not lifetime value. The customers worth acquiring most look identical to unprofitable ones, in your current reporting.

Powered by Vantage — our proprietary ML platform

Four models. One weekly prediction delivered into the tools your team already uses.

Deploys directly on your customer data, integrates with your existing marketing stack via reverse ETL. No new dashboard to learn, no BI team required. Just weekly outputs in Klaviyo, Braze, or HubSpot.

Total Revenue
$0
Spend
$0
Wasted Ad Spend
$11,320
Blended ROAS
8.4x
— AI ALLOCATION INSIGHT

Shift $15,000 from
Google Ads to Meta Ads
over the next 14 days.

Projected to capture an estimated
+$30,000
in net-new monthly revenue
— model confidence signals
Model confidence
87%
Based on 90 days of clean campaign-level data
Data quality
High
30 days continuous — no gaps or anomalies detected
Historical accuracy
± 12%
Recommendations within this variance on back-tested data
— HOW WE CALCULATED THIS
Google reduction: −$15,000 × 1.49x true ROAS
−$22,350
Meta increase: +$15,000 × 3.52x true ROAS
+$52,800
Net projected gain
+$30,450
Projections assume current elasticity coefficients hold. Results vary. See variance range above.
Google Ads attributes revenue using last-click attribution — giving 100% of the conversion credit to the final ad clicked before purchase. This systematically overcounts branded search terms that customers use right before buying regardless of whether they saw an ad. Your Performance Max campaigns also claim credit for organic traffic, direct visits, and returning customers. Our Marketing Mix Model strips out these effects to isolate the revenue genuinely caused by incremental ad spend.
— CHANNEL PERFORMANCE
CHANNEL TRUE ROAS PLATFORM ROAS ELASTICITY
Meta Ads 3.52x 6.56x High ↑
Google Ads 1.49x 11.69x Low ↓
True ROAS calculated by Thumprint MMM. Platform ROAS as reported by ad platforms.
— BUDGET ALLOCATION
Current allocation
Google 58%
Meta 42%
↓ shift
Recommended allocation
— IMPLEMENTATION TIMELINE
1
Days 1–3: Reduce Google
daily budget by $500/day
2
Days 4–7: Increase Meta
daily budget by $500/day
3
Day 14: Full reallocation
complete — monitor true ROAS
— NEXT MODEL RUN
Tomorrow
6:00 AM UTC
Model running on schedule
Customers Evaluated
0
High Risk (>80%)
0
Total Dollars At Risk
$0
Sequences Triggered
340
Customer ID Segment Churn Risk Dollars At Risk Automated Action
CUST_8921 Power User 94% $1,240 SMS: High-Value Reactivation
CUST_2094 Cooling Off 87% $890
CUST_5532 Healthy 82% $450
CUST_1102 Cooling Off 89% $2,100 Alert: Account Manager
— HOW IT WORKS

From data access to live predictions in your stack, in two weeks.

2 weeks Average time from first data connection to live predictions in your marketing stack.
1

Data audit & qualification

We assess your current data stack (order history, email platform, ad accounts) to confirm Vantage can run effectively and identify where the biggest gains are.

2

Model deployment & integration

We deploy all four models on your data and wire them to your marketing stack via reverse ETL. Predictions flow directly into your CRM segments and ad audiences.

3

Weekly predictions & reporting

Every week, your team receives a formatted report with churn scores, LTV tiers, top at-risk customers, and recommended actions. Plain English, not a dashboard.

4

Ongoing execution (optional)

We can run paid advertising, email, and content on top of the intelligence layer, or train your team to run it themselves. Done-for-you or done-with-you.

— PROOF POINT

$5K–$20K in attributable email revenue. Within weeks. On a system the client now runs themselves.

$5K–$20K Attributable email revenue within weeks of launch
4 locations Full marketing infrastructure built from scratch
Ongoing Client executing independently post-engagement
"After the engagement ended, the client's team continued executing the full plan independently. The clearest possible signal that the work was built to last, not to create dependency."

— Multi-location specialty retail brand, North Idaho

— YOUR NUMBERS

What's the leak actually costing you?

Input your metrics below to see conservative estimates of wasted spend and at-risk revenue based on our models.

Monthly Ad Spend
$50,000
Active Customers
5,000
Avg Customer Value (avg annual revenue per customer)
$2,000
Est. Monthly Wasted Ad Spend
$12,000
Est. Customers At Silent Churn Risk
108
Est. At-Risk Revenue Per Month
$47,952
Combined Revenue Exposure
$59,952
Start here

Start with a free data audit

We'll assess your stack, identify where the biggest gains are, and tell you exactly what Vantage would surface on your data before you commit to anything.

Book your audit

No retainer required. Most audits take one week.